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gemini spotted http://forums.rab-hq.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=622 |
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Auteur: | skroh [ Mar Mai 23, 2006 11:49 am ] |
Sujet du message: | gemini spotted |
lsara a ecrit : I hate the ZHC nerf, but I guess I should examine why they did it... www.allakhazam.com lists the ToEP as a 3-5% drop (with a sample size of 30,000 kills, on average). So, lets look at this statistically: Some notation: P(T) : the chance of you getting a ToEP this week P(Dn) : the chance of n ToPEs dropping this week P(T|Dn) : the chance of you getting a ToEP, if n ToPEs drop this week The ToEP is a 4% drop off 4 mobs, thus it can drop 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 times in one run. P(D4) = (0C4)(0.04^4) = 0.0001125 P(D3) = (1C4)(0.96)(0.04^3) = 0.00024576 P(D2) = (2C4)(0.96^2)(0.04^2) = 0.00884736 P(D1) = (3C4)(0.96^3)(0.04) = 0.14155776 P(D0) = (4C4)(0.96^4) = 0.84934656 Now assuming a standard class balance (5 of each class), half the raid are casters that would make use of it. Thus, the chance of you getting one ToEP (not considering a DKP system) is dependant on how many drop: P(T|D4) = (4)(0.05) = 0.20 P(T|D3) = (3)(0.05) = 0.15 P(T|D2) = (2)(0.05) = 0.10 P(T|D1) = 0.05 P(T|D0) = 0 So your chance of getting a ToEP this week is: P(T) = P(T|D0)*P(D0) + P(T|D1)*P(D1) + P(T|D2)*P(D2) + P(T|D3)*P(D3) + P(T|D4)*P(D4) = (0) + (0.05)(0.14155776) + (0.10)(0.00884736) + (0.15)(0.00024576) + (0.20)(0.0001125) = 0.008353764 or 0.84% Where as, you get a 5% chance every 3 days for a ZHC, giving you an aproximate chance each week of 10%. So yes, I would agree then, the ToEP is harder to get. fun = (level != 60)? LEVELING : COMPLAINING[/b] |
Auteur: | norik [ Mar Mai 23, 2006 5:35 pm ] |
Sujet du message: | |
lol |
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